The Econometric Analysis of Electricity Consumption
Keywords:
Residential electricity supply, household electricity consumption, electricity demand, ARIMAAbstract
This article presents an ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) model for forecasting electricity consumption in the residential sector of the Republic of Uzbekistan, with projections up to 2029. The model-building process is described in detail, with clear steps outlined. Correlations within the data were analyzed using a correlogram, and statistical methods were used to test the stationarity of the data. The accuracy and statistical significance of the model were verified through several tests, confirming the reliability of the forecast. This work proposes an effective approach for forecasting electricity supply in Uzbekistan's residential sector.
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