The Main Causes of Migration in Uzbekistan: An Econometric Analysis

Abstract

This study investigates the primary causes of migration in Uzbekistan from 2010 to 2023, employing various econometric models to analyze the relationship between migration rates and key economic, social, and political factors. Using data sourced from national statistics and international databases, the analysis reveals significant relationships between migration rates and GDP, unemployment rates, average income, education index, and political stability. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, Vector Autoregression (VAR), and Error Correction Model (ECM) provide insights into the dynamic and long-term equilibrium relationships between these variables. The findings indicate that higher GDP, average income, education levels, and political stability positively influence migration rates, while higher unemployment rates negatively impact them. The study also forecasts future migration trends based on projected values of these factors, providing valuable insights for policymakers. The results are compared with existing literature, such as Borjas (1999) and Massey et al. (1993), to validate the findings and propose policy recommendations aimed at managing migration effectively. The study concludes with a discussion on the limitations and suggestions for future research.